The Two-Vote Upset

In North Carolina, we take pork BBQ, college basketball, and elections very seriously. We fight over Eastern versus Western style and NC State versus UNC, and last week we witnessed a historic upset fit for the Dean Dome—the rivals: Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

For 16 years, Berger has steered the state’s legislative agenda with a firm grip. However, the March 3 primary results delivered a shockwave. Sheriff Page led the incumbent by a mere two votes on election night. Like most great rivalry games, this one is still in overtime. Since election night, the gap has widened; after counting provisional ballots and the official election canvass this past Friday, Page’s lead has grown to 23 votes, with the final count being Page 13,136 and Berger 13,113.

The Drama Intensifies

The past two weeks following the election have been a political nail-biter in NCPol. We’re already seeing the drama unfold:

• Former State Senator Bob Rucho, a staunch Berger ally, resigned from the State Board of Elections. His departure followed revelations of prohibited political contributions and public support for Berger while serving on the board.
• State Auditor Dave Boliek, who holds the power to appoint SBOE members under a new 2024 law, has faced calls to recuse himself. Page’s camp argues that Boliek’s vocal support for Berger is a massive conflict of interest. Boliek’s team maintains that the Auditor’s office cannot sway the election results.

What Happens Next?

Don’t expect a concession speech anytime soon. Over $10 million was spent to keep Berger in office. Some of the wealthiest and most powerful people in the state have a vested interest in keeping the current Pro Tem, and the campaign will certainly explore every legal avenue.

With a margin of one percent, expect Berger to call for a recount this week. Though recounts rarely change the final vote tally. Both candidates have announced legal defense funds, preparing for what could be a long and expensive legal battle. Much like the Jefferson Griffin vs. Allison Riggs race of 2024, this could land in the NC State Supreme Court—where Berger’s son sits as an Associate Justice. Could Justice Berger be the deciding opinion to defend his father?

A Power Vacuum in Raleigh?

I understand the frustrations many in the Republican party feel about his leadership. While I’ve had my fair share of disagreements with his tactics, his impact is undeniable. No other politician in my lifetime has had such a profound effect on our state government and the NC Republican Party. If Berger keeps his seat for another term, he will have served longer than his former Democrat counterpart, the late Senator Marc Basnight.

Berger was the architect of the Republican majority through redistricting. There are many Republicans in office today thanks to his redrawn district maps. On the other hand, there are quite a few elected officials who have been ousted because of him as well. He steered a massive power shift, stripping authority from the Executive branch and vesting it in the General Assembly. Today, North Carolina has one of the most powerful legislatures in the nation. If Berger is ousted, the Senate faces a total paradigm shift. He didn't just lead the Senate; he drove the agenda and suppressed opposition.

Who fills those shoes? Let’s look at his top lieutenants—names that should be familiar to you in Eastern North Carolina:

• Senator Bill Rabon (Rules Chair): As Berger’s gatekeeper of every bill, his influence is massive. While a top contender to be next in line, Rabon has hinted at retirement for several years. Berger’s departure could be the final nod.
• Senator Brent Jackson (Budget/Ag Chair): A key budget writer with massive influence over appropriations. Though loyal to Berger and well-liked, there are also whispers regarding his potential retirement.
• Senator Michael Lee: As Majority Leader and a top budget writer, Lee is a natural choice for Pro Tem. He’s been a prolific fundraiser for the caucus and a sharp legislator, not to mention fiercely loyal to Berger. However, the caucus typically prefers leadership from "safe" districts. While Lee’s district, NC-7, has become more reliably Republican, it remains a purple battleground.
• Other top contenders for Pro Tem and leadership positions in the Senate include Senators Ralph Hise, Amy Galey, Dan Craven, Buck Newton, Jim Perry, Todd Johnson, and Carl Ford. You’ve probably heard of Amy Galey’s name recently, as she was the senator who went to Sam Page’s house last month, begging the Sheriff to drop out of the race.

This shift in leadership will also cause a shake-up for Raleigh lobbyists. Berger has been a reliable friend for some of the largest special interest groups in the state- groups that have paid top dollar to former Berger staffers to lobby on their behalf. Depending on how the Senate stands after November, companies may hire new lobbyists, and former Berger associates may be looking for new jobs. For Democrats, a Senate shakeup could provide an opening to pick up a few seats in November, even if the GOP majority remains firm.

I wrote about this a few weeks ago with the Texas special election, but we’re already seeing Democrats flip state seats since Trump was elected. Over the past 14 months, Democrats have flipped a total of 28 Republican held seats in state legislatures around the country. These wins have even come in deep red states, including Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi. With Berger out of the top seat and the Senate caucus coffers depleted, Democrats are primed to pick up seats.

The Power of the Grassroots

Page supporters and Berger haters shouldn’t light their victory cigars just yet; with a 23-vote lead, supporters should expect a drawn-out legal battle, like the Griffin race. But if Page does head to Raleigh, he faces an uphill battle as a freshman member who will garner both resentment and praise from his new Senate colleagues. He will have to learn the ropes quickly and deal with being under an intense microscope from Berger loyalists working to make sure he is only a one-term senator. On the other hand, Page will enter the General Assembly with more statewide name ID and as a hero among grassroots Republicans. This is the guy who went to battle with nothing but a slingshot and a stone and took out the largest giant in the state. Page has the momentum to be a firebrand in the Senate and be the standard-bearer for the freedom caucus movement, but unlike in the House, there has been little appetite for firebrands in the Senate.

This race is a glaring reminder that runs contrary to the advice of many consultants- you cannot outspend a disgruntled base. The friction over casino legislation and the shrimp trawler ban exposed a gap between Raleigh special interests and the frustrated voters. The millions spent on direct mail and digital ads backfired on voters who already knew Page and Berger well. This should be a lesson to all legislators who enjoy the fruits of special interests- the campaign money may be great, but it doesn’t matter if you lose the support of your constituents. After all, special interests don’t vote, no matter how big they are. Page ran a David vs. Goliath story—and North Carolinians always love an underdog.