(The Center Square) – Likely voters for the U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina favor Democrat Roy Cooper over Republican Michael Whatley 52%-39%, a final poll in the race released Tuesday from Elon University says.
Only 6% were undecided, 2% chose Libertarian Shannon Bray and 1% chose the Green Party’s Michael Dublin in the sampling Sept. 29-Oct. 8 of 800 adults statewide. This Elon University Poll, in conjunction with YouGov, had a margin of error at +/- 4.03%.
Cooper had support from 93% of Democrats, 70% of Blacks, 59% of Hispanics and 50% of independents. Whatley had support of 85% of Republicans and 46% of whites (to 40% for Cooper). Whatley and Cooper each received 42% support from men; Cooper was favored 51%-34% by women.
The poll included a forced choice of only Cooper and Whatley; Cooper led 54%-43%.
Dr. Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and professor of political science and public policy, suggests a 13-point win on Election Day is not necessarily about to happen.
“Michael Whatley has a slight advantage among undecided voters when we pressed them to make a choice, attributable to more undecided voters being 2024 Trump voters than 2024 Harris voters,” he said, referencing the last presidential cycle and Donald Trump against Kamala Harris. “Second, Whatley voters continue to predict he will ultimately win, suggesting his supporters are still motivated to cast their votes. Third, Cooper’s lead among registered voters overall is smaller than his lead among the subset of registered voters who say they are likely to vote, implying opportunity for Republicans if they can motivate more of their base to turn out.”
In previous Elon University Polls, Cooper led Whatley 49%-38% in a Sept. 10 release; and Cooper led Whatley 53%-42% in an Aug. 12 release.
Ballots have been cast since Sept. 4. Early in-person voting started on Thursday of last week and Election Day is two weeks away on Nov. 3.
Also in the poll were survey questions on the impact for the midterms of Trump, the second-term Republican president; top issues driving voters’ choices; and the impact of party affiliation on voters’ decisions.
Asked about endorsements by Trump, 43% said they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate and 25% said they would be more likely, with 26% saying it did not make much difference. Trump’s rating in the poll was 57% disapproval and 34% approval.
Trump’s destination Tuesday was the Coastal Plains and the airport in Greenville to rally voters for Republican candidates, with Whatley and 1st Congressional District Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout the biggest names. Vice President J.D. Vance on Monday was in the mountains for key races like that of Whatley and 11th Congressional District candidate Jennifer Balkcom.
An open-ended question asking for four words or less on the single most important issue drew 37% to economic issues inclusive of inflation, cost of living and jobs. A distant second was partisan control (16%), followed by democracy and civil rights (10%).
Those were followed by immigration and border security (6%); leadership and corruption (6%); education (3%); foreign affairs and national security (3%); taxes and the federal budget (2%); healthcare (2%); crime, safety, and policing (2%); reproductive rights (1%); Social Security (1%); and technology (1%).
Registered voters, asked about party affiliation importance in national, state and local races, gave it high or medium importance over little/no importance for each of the U.S. House of Representatives, General Assembly, state Supreme Court, county sheriff, county commissioners, local school board, local judges and local district attorney.
High importance was most for the U.S. House (75%), state Supreme Court (71%) and General Assembly (59%).
The Elon University Poll bills itself as “full funded by Elon University,” thereby permitting “the Elon University Poll to operate as the neutral, nonbiased resource of information for citizens and political and business leaders. As a result of this generous support, the Elon University poll does not engage in any contract work.”
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