(The Center Square) – Republican Michael Whatley chopped nearly 5% off the lead of Democrat Roy Cooper for North Carolina’s U.S Senate seat election in a pollster’s final sampling taken Sunday through Tuesday.
Cooper leads Whatley 49.4%-39.1% in the poll of the Carolina Journal in conjunction with Harper Polling. That’s a 14.7% improvement for Whatley closing the deficit gap 4.8% from September when Cooper led 49.2%-34.1%. Cooper led 51.5%-39% in the pollster’s August release, 49.8%-38.5% in the pollster’s May release, and 48.9%-41.1% in the pollster’s March release.
Also in the findings, incumbent Democratic Justice Anita Earls retains a healthy lead over Republican Sarah Stevens in the state’s only Supreme Court election; the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America within the broader Democratic Party has a bigger gap from unfavorable to favorable than does the president; and President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating improved from minus-16% to minus-10.6%.
Cooper has 38 years in office: eight as governor, 16 as attorney general, 10 years in the state Senate and four years in the state House of Representatives. Whatley is making his first run at elected office, having previously helped many in his tenures as chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, then as the Trump-picked chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Cooper’s campaign points in comments and campaign ads have rested on affordability in everyday costs; healthcare costs; and a defensive message related to his record with criminals released from prison and cashless bail policy. Whatley has spoken for a long time on Cooper’s public safety record and what he says is a lack thereof; stayed true to Republican branding on tax cuts and economic growth; and says healthcare costs rose significantly during Cooper’s gubernatorial tenure.
This U.S. Senate seat has long been viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for a majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. Thirty-five seats are on the ballot, two of which are special elections.
In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana have been considered the other top battlegrounds. Democrats’ momentum has brought Kansas into the picture and changed the outlook on both North Carolina and Georgia, while Republican momentum has changed the outlook in Montana.
The president's schedule is also indicative of pivotal battles.
Trump, the second-term Republican, has campaigned for candidates in Nebraska (Oct. 5), New York (Oct. 9), Alaska (Oct. 12), Montana (Oct. 13), Kentucky (this past Saturday), Kansas (Monday), North Carolina (Tuesday) and South Carolina (Wednesday). According to the White House, Republican National Committee and state-level party leaders, his tentative schedule ahead will send him to Michigan (on Sunday), Mississippi (on Monday), Texas (on Tuesday), Ohio (Oct. 28), Florida (Oct. 31), Missouri (Nov. 1), West Virginia and Indiana (Nov. 2), and back to Montana and Florida (Election Day).
Trump’s new rating from the Carolina Journal poll is 54.5% disapprove to 43.9% approve. In September, respective numbers were 57.1% and 41.1%; in August, 56.7% and 41.2%; in May, 56.6% and 41.5%; and in March, 53.7% and 44.8%.
In the state Supreme Court election, Earls led Stevens 47.3%-39.7%. That is tighter than in September when Earls led 47.2%-36.4%. Earlier polls were or nearly were statistical ties accounting for margin of error, with Earls leading 43.3%-39.7% in August, 41.3%-35.6% in May, and 40.6%-38% in March.
Asked about favorability of the Democratic Socialists of America, 45.9% said unfavorable and 24.1% said favorable – a minus 24.8% that is more than double the president's gap. The Democratic Party, on a national scale, has tension in an ideological tussle for control. Democratic socialism is on the rise, replete with a desire not only for social reforms but also restructuring, including abolishing the U.S. Senate, having Congress pick the president and U.S. Supreme Court, defunding the Pentagon, and allowing all residents, regardless of citizenship, to vote.
This Carolina Journal Poll had a sample size of 600 likely voters, carries a +/- 4% margin of error, and has a confidence interval of 95%.
The Carolina Journal is the print publication of the conservative-leaning John Locke Foundation. The Carolina Journal Poll was previously known as the Civitas Poll, has been in existence since May 2005, and bills itself as “the only state-based news organization offering statewide independent, nonpartisan data on a regular basis.”
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